, Fla. — The Atlantic tropics are quieting down amid the waning days of the 2025 hurricane season, with no immediate tropical threats looming for the U.S. coastline.
Former Tropical Storm Jerry has fully dissipated over the open waters and shows no signs of regenerating into a tropical depression or tropical storm before brushing past Bermuda.
Karen proved even shorter-lived, rapidly weakening to a post-tropical cyclone after just a few hours of disorganized activity, underscoring the challenges of tropical cyclone formation in cooler shear environments.
Now, we are closely tracking a single tropical wave in the central Atlantic basin, which is poised to execute its northern recurvature even sooner than the paths observed with Jerry and Humberto earlier this season.
This broad area of low pressure, situated well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, remains extremely disorganized with minimal convective organization and low wind shear potential for intensification. It carries a 50/50 chance of developing into a named tropical storm over the next seven days, per ensemble model guidance, but regardless of its peak strength, it poses very little impact risk to Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland due to its projected northward trajectory.
Looking further ahead in the long-range outlook, hurricane specialists urge vigilance over the Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain anomalously warm—well above the 26.5°C threshold needed to fuel rapid tropical cyclone intensification.
As of now, however, global models like the GFS and European ECMWF are not indicating any significant tropical development in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, offering a brief respite in the tropics update for coastal communities.
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