, Fla. — Collectively, Florida counties would face a $9 billion shortfall in 2027 if Florida voters decided to eliminate non-school property taxes on homesteaded houses, according to state data.
The numbers, analyzed by the Florida Association of Counties (FAC), would result in less money for parks, fire departments, and other expenses many residents take for granted.
It would also leave governments in an unenviable position: decide which cuts to make or find ways to make that revenue up.
While state lawmakers advocating for the cuts discuss thousands of dollars in potential savings for struggling homeowners, the reality in Tallahassee is a bit murkier: government staffers and many Republicans and Democrats are hinting that Florida cannot afford to cut all taxes.
They – in conjunction with State Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia’s barnstorming effort to root out “waste” at the local government level – are also trying to reduce the amount of fight governments will put up once a proposal is settled upon.
“Upending a tax structure that has been in place for generations is a very tall order, and something we have to take very seriously,” Miami-Dade’s Bryan Avila said during a recent hearing.
In the halls of local governments, staff are examining alternative revenue sources they can turn to if voters pass the deeper cuts. Their options include raising sales taxes, raising property taxes on non-homesteaded properties, including renters, imposing fees (which are property taxes that aren’t based on the value of a home) or eating the cuts.
The most extreme option – the $9 billion cut – would leave Flagler County searching for nearly $600 per resident, Orange County nearly $300, and Polk County less than $200, based on FAC data and 2025 population estimates.
It would likely result in a windfall for the wealthiest homeowners and homeowners who moved in the last four to five years, who would almost certainly pass at least a portion of their tax bill onto renters unless the county only chose to cut costs.
Some of the other proposals being considered would lead to less extensive deficits. Proposals to grant homeowners additional tax exemptions, either 25% or a flat $100,000, would result in budget gaps ranging from $50 to $150 per resident in Central Florida counties.
Under those proposals, Brevard County and Orange County fare the best, while Flagler County would have the most accounting magic to create.
Another proposal – eliminating property taxes for seniors only – would result in a $75 per person shortfall for Osceola County. At the same time, Sumter County would have to determine how to make up the $355 per person shortfall.
Meanwhile, the most modest proposals, such as allowing newly married couples to combine their homestead exemptions and eliminating the cap on how much of a homestead exemption can be moved to a new house, would result in minimal reductions for counties.
Some county leaders admit budgets could use a little fat trimming. Orange County Tax Collector Scott Randolph said increasing the value of a homestead exemption would only set the county’s budget back to 2023 levels.
“There’s no doubt local government budgets have exploded in the last four to five years,” he said. “If you bought in the last three to four years… you are definitely paying an exorbitant amount of property taxes as compared to your neighbors.”
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